Election 2020 is still 385 days away, but that won’t stop the predictions from pouring in on who’s going to win.
According to one model that has been historically accurate, President Trump appears to be on his way to to an easy victory.
Moody’s Analytics uses three different economic models to predict the outcome of political races: “how consumers feel about their own financial situation, the gains the stock market has achieved during Trump’s tenure, and the prospects for unemployment,” CNBC reports. “The modeling has been highly accurate going back to the 1980 election, missing only once.”
“If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump’s election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren’t enthusiastic and don’t get out to vote,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “It’s about turnout.”
Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016 by a vote of 304-227 in the electoral college. The three models project that Trump would get at least 289 electoral votes if turnout is average.
Under the model on how people feel about their own financial situations, Trump wins 351 electoral votes to the Democrat’s 187, based on average turnout.
“Our ‘pocket¬book’ model is the most economically driven of the three. If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition,” the report says. “This shows the importance that prevailing economic sentiment at the household level could hold in the next election.”
Under the stock market model, Trump would win with a 289-249 vote. The unemployment model gives Trump a 332-206 win. Using all three models combined, Trump wins 324-214.
The result begins to vary with higher turnout. “Record turnout is vital to a Democratic victory,” the report says.
“If turnout of nonincumbent voters in 2020 matches the historical high across states, then Democrats would win a squeaker with 279 electoral votes to the president’s 259. Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Minnesota and New Hampshire would all flip from Trump’s column versus our average turnout baseline. Even though Democratic enthusiasm was significantly more robust in the most recent midterm election, it is still worth considering a scenario in which the nonincumbent share of turnout matches its historical minimum across all states,” the report says.
But then again, many of the pollsters in 2016 got it wrong. Betting agencies were more accurate.
“Donald Trump is still favored to win the 2020 Election with -120 average odds,” Sports Betting Dime wrote in July. That means you’d have to bet $120 just to win $100.
TheLines.com, another betting site, pointed out what a huge turnaround that is from the 2016 election, when Trump’s odds at the start were 500/1 — or +50,000 on betting sites.
“This means that the implied odds gave Trump a 0.2% chance of winning the presidency. So, if you saw Donald Trump listed as 500/1, a moneyline wager of $1 winning would return $500. If you see it priced at +50,000, then a $100 bet would return $50,000 profit,” the site said.
A $2,000 bet on Trump in the early days of the 2016 campaign would’ve made you a millionaire.
And so far, Trump’s many scandals haven’t hurt his re-election chances.
“Despite his many scathing scandals and controversies, Trump somehow remains the overwhelming favorite to win the next U.S. Presidential election in 2020. The Donald’s current average odds of +110 are 990 points better than his next closest competitor. That isn’t just a gap — it’s yawning chasm — and it could get even wider unless something changes soon,” The Dime wrote.
Author: Joseph Curl