Four months after 84-year-old Nancy Guthrie disappeared from her Tucson, Arizona home, a former FBI agent is saying what investigators haven't: an arrest may finally be coming.
Maureen O'Connell, a former FBI special agent, told Megyn Kelly on June 23 that investigators are "getting close to the porch guy" — a reference to the masked man captured on doorbell camera footage the morning Nancy vanished. "When they get the porch guy," O'Connell said, "the floodgates shall swing open." She put her confidence in an imminent arrest at 75 percent.
That's the most direct public statement about forward progress in a case that has gripped the country since February.
Nancy Guthrie — the mother of NBC Today co-anchor Savannah Guthrie — was taken from her home in the Catalina Foothills suburb of Tucson on February 1, 2026. Surveillance footage captured a masked man in a ski mask, gloves, and backpack tampering with a Nest camera outside the home shortly before she disappeared. Evidence at the scene indicated she had been taken by force. Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos confirmed it was an abduction and launched a multi-agency investigation involving the FBI and U.S. Customs and Border Protection.
Two ransom notes followed. The first demanded $4 million in Bitcoin, with deadlines that passed without payment by February 9. The second, sent six days after the abduction, contained a detail that wasn't made public until June 22 — nearly four months after it was received. That note claimed Nancy had died shortly after the kidnapping. It included specific details about her Apple Watch and the clothes she was wearing, and indicated where her body could be found.
Law enforcement had kept the second note private to avoid compromising the investigation. Its release last week — and O'Connell's appearance on Megyn Kelly the following day — suggest the investigation may be entering a new phase.
Savannah Guthrie suspended her broadcasting duties after her mother's disappearance, including coverage of the 2026 Winter Olympics. She appeared visibly emotional during a recent broadcast, describing her family's ongoing "agony." Whatever the outcome of this case, the Guthrie family has been living it publicly and privately for nearly five months with no answers.
The "porch guy" — whoever tampered with that camera in a ski mask on the morning of February 1 — is the thread O'Connell believes unravels everything else. Masked individuals don't approach homes with backpacks and disable security cameras by accident. Someone planned this. Someone executed it. And according to a former FBI agent with 75 percent confidence in an arrest, someone may soon be in handcuffs.
The Pima County Sheriff's office has not commented on the timeline of any potential arrest. The investigation remains active.
Nancy Guthrie has been missing for 144 days. Her family is still waiting.
